Blackjack Insurance vs Even Money

Although the concept and math are simple, many recreational blackjack players do not realize that taking Even Money is mathematically identical to making an Insurance bet.

Insurance Bet Basics

If the dealer shows an Ace, a player has the option to make an Insurance bet. This side wager wins if the dealer has blackjack (pays 2:1) and loses otherwise (if the dealer's hole card is not a 10-value card). Most players understand this wager carries a house edge of about 8%, making it unfavorable.

Even Money Explained

If a player has blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, the player has the option to take Even Money on their hand. This pays 1:1 immediately, instead of risking the standard 3:2 payout (if the dealer lacks blackjack) or a push (if the dealer also has blackjack).

Mathematical Equivalence

The two options are identical. Taking Even Money is equivalent to making an Insurance bet on your blackjack hand.

Example with $100 Bet

Assume a player has a $100 blackjack hand and places a $50 Insurance bet. If the dealer does not have blackjack, the dealer takes the $50 insurance, but pays $150 (3:2) for the blackjack—a net profit of $100. If the dealer has blackjack, the blackjack hand pushes (nothing won/lost), but the Insurance bet pays $100 (2:1 on $50)—again a $100 net profit. Taking Even Money simply pays $100 upfront in either case.

Why Avoid These Bets

As shown, Even Money or Insurance always yields the same $100 profit here. However, most skilled blackjack players avoid it, knowing they end up with more money over the long run by declining both options.

Over the long haul, the dealer won't make blackjack often enough (only ~30.8% chance with Ace up) to justify these bets with their built-in house edge.